COMPARISON OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR THE NUMBER OF JOB SEEKERS USING ARIMA AND DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Abstract

The high population growth rate will affect the demand for employment and the number of job seekers. This study aims to determine the characteristics of job seekers' data, form a forecasting model, and predict the number of registered job seekers in Banjar Regency using Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA models. Based on the analysis conducted, the ARMA model (1,1) is the best model that can be used to predict the number of job seekers in Banjar Regency. From this model, the results show that in short-term forecasting, the number of job seekers in Banjar Regency is suspected to have increased for the following three periods.